Oklahoma City Severe Weather Threat Through Sunday (4-22-2014)


A multi-day severe weather outbreak is possible. Wednesday will be day one of this outbreak for Oklahoma. The tornado threat is next to zero, however along and west of I35 will have the best chance for severe weather on Wednesday. Large hail to golf ball sized and winds to 70 mph will be possible.

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Then we will skip a couple of days and go to this upcoming weekend. Above you see a graphic that shows the severe weather threat this weekend. The purple shows where the best severe weather threat is for Saturday. Sunday’s threat will include part of where Saturday’s threat exists in the purple plus the green shading as well. OKC will be impact both days. A major threat for strong tornadoes will exist too,

Here’s the days 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Note the strong wording this. This could be the biggest outbreak of 2014.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 VALID 251200Z – 301200Z

DISCUSSION: SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS…IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z.

THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX…NWD INTO SCNTRL KS SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX…NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN KS…SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT…THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

Think about what your plans will be in the aforementioned areas this weekend. Weather will change very quickly. Now is the time you want to go over your severe weather plan.

Follow me at @okcstormwatcher on Twitter, my storm chase team on Twitter at @XtremeStormOKC, also my Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/OKCStormWatcher as well for latest updates.

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