Tuesday-Southwestern Oklahoma has the best chances for severe weather. Can’t rule out a suoercell with possible tornadoes south of I-40 and west of US 81. All this will depend on the cap, which will be very strong more north and east. If storms develop, OKC can see heavy rain will isolated severe overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning.
Wednesday-A very strong cap plus residual storms from Tuesday night will inhibit stop, development initially. The cap is expected to break along the dryline by late afternoon. This dryline will set up along and just east of US 183 or along an Alva to Taloga to Clinton to Hobart to Vernon, TX line. If storms do develop, they will be capable of producing hail in excess of baseball sized, winds to 70 mph and tornadoes. OKC would get into play during the evening and overnight hours. Severe weather is quite likely later into the evening hours further east.
Thursday-A setup that resembles Wednesday, minus the cap and the dryline positioned from a Medford to Enid to Hinton to Frederick line by Thursday morning. The severe weather threat is greater on Thursday with a moderate risk of severe weather. Tornadoes, large hail past baseball sized hail, damaging straight line winds will be possible east of the dryline early/ in the afternoon. The dryline should be along 35 by mid afternoon with significant severe weather likely just to the east of this and heading into eastern Oklahoma. Severe weather should be clear of OKC by 5 PM and Tulsa by 9 PM.
This is still quite early and a guess right now. Heavy rains are quite possible according to the latest models. I’ll post updates to this as needed.