300 PM CT Oklahoma Weather Update & Summary (7/4/2011)


ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SMALL THUNDERSTORMS. A STALLED SYNOPTIC FRONT WAS EASY TO LOCATE FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE EASTERN STATES…BUT WAS LESS WELL DEFINED IN OK AND KS. OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY HAD ESTABLISHED A MORE MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS UP TO FORT COBB AND OVER TOWARD PURCELL AND MCALESTER. EXPECT SCATTERED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH…BUT SHOULD BE FEWER IN NUMBER AND OF EVEN LESSER STRENGTH.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS…ORIENTED WEST TO EAST…WILL ALSO FAVOR
THE BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARD THE RED RIVER BY
THIS EVENING…AND THE SAME AREA LOOKS TO BE FAVORED ON TUESDAY.
THEN ATTENTION WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM GATHERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUCCESSIVE ROUNDS OF STORMS SHOULD ROLL EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING IN NEBRASKA. JUDGING BY THE AMPLITUDE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH… IT SEEMS THE NAM IS TOO AGGRESSIVE AT PUSHING THE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTO OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT THE PATTERN DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS TO REACH NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY MORNING. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED RAINFALL MAY THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY…BUT MAINLY NORTH AND EAST.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MAY BEGIN IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY…BUT WILL OVERSPREAD MORE OF THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LEE TROUGHING AT SURFACE…WHILE HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THUS…WE WILL BE LOOKING AT HOTTER…BREEZY WEATHER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND…ESPECIALLY WEST. THUS…DISCUSSION OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESUME. THE RIDGE DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT FLAT…HOWEVER…AND THE GFS CONTINUES TO OFFER AT LEAST SOME HOPE OF EASTERLY WAVES MOVING UP FROM THE GULF COAST NEXT WEEK…WHICH COULD INJECT A LITTLE MORE HUMIDITY AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE MIX.

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