This Afternoon’s Severe Weather Targets Multi-State Areas


Severe weather currently targets several states from Indiana & Ohio southeast to the Carolinas. Some areas of the upper midwest could see some severe weather and there is some possibility in Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas as well. Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas are being monitored for moderate risk of severe weather on Wednesday, which I will post a separate blog entry tomorrow morning on that. There is a chance that some of the moderate risk areas for tomorrow could see a high risk upgrade as well. Once that becomes certain, I will post a blog entry then. Now the severe weather outlook for the rest of the day courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2011

VALID 102000Z – 111200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS INDIANA…OH VALLEY TO
COASTAL CAROLINAS…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION…

— UPDATES —

…OH VALLEY/INDIANA TO CAROLINAS…
REF SPC WWS 268-270 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON SVR THREAT WITH ONGOING AND INCIPIENT SVR
TSTMS IN THESE REGIONS. OUTLOOK LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

…CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL TX…
MRGL HAIL THREAT EXISTS WITH ELEVATED TSTMS MOVING NWD TO NNEWD
ACROSS THIS REGION…AHEAD OF DRYLINE. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
710 FOR MORE DETAILS. THREAT CLOSER TO DRYLINE STILL APPEARS RATHER
CONDITIONAL. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER RELATED TO CONVECTIVE/PRECIP
AREA FARTHER E COMBINED WITH LACK OF ROBUST CONVERGENCE HAVE BEEN
LIMITING FACTORS. HOWEVER…SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY
PSEUDO-DRYLINE AND CONFLUENCE LINE FROM FST-INK…CORRESPONDING TO
GRADIENT FROM TEENS TO 40S F SFC DEW POINTS. LOCALLY ENHANCED LIFT
ALONG THAT FEATURE MAY BE SUPPORTING HIGH-BASED/SHALLOW CONVECTION
NOW EVIDENT IN THAT AREA…WHICH MAY BECOME SOURCE REGION FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS.

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