PDS Tornado Watch Likely By Mid-Afternoon Today


The latest graphic and discussion are out concerning the high risk area for severe weather. This is going to be a serious situation as deadly long-track tornadoes look more and more likely. Below is the graphic & corresponding discussion on this.

Map highlighting mesoscale discussion 589 concerning high risk area of severe weather

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED…NORTHEAST TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN
LA/SOUTHERN AR

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261811Z – 262015Z

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE
AFTERNOON…INITIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX AND INTO
SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR. A RELATIVELY LONG LEAD
TIME/DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID AFTERNOON.

WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS…THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS…EAST OF A NEAR I-35 CENTRAL TX
DRYLINE…AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW NORTHWARD-RETURNING
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH DFW
METRO INTO SOUTHERN AR…HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE IN THE PRESENCE OF LITTLE CINH. AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT MIDDAY…THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER JET
STREAK APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS…WITH
LIKELY-ASSOCIATED DEEP MIXED CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT NOW EVIDENT
ACROSS EASTERN NM/NORTHWEST TX PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD ATOP THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN INCREASING LARGE
HAIL/TORNADO THREAT INTO THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACCENTUATE THE RISK OF STRONG
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY/ADJACENT FAR
SOUTHEAST OK.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s