Severe Weather Watch Likely South of I-40 in Oklahoma Shortly


With Oklahoma City receiving already 1.3″ of rain so far today, severe weather could be just around the corner. Areas south of Oklahoma City right up to I-40, including Norman, Lawton, Pauls Valley, Ardmore, Wichita Falls and areas to I-20 in Texas need to be ready for severe weather. Here is the latest discussion concerning a potential severe weather watch coming in the next hour or so.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0550
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL/SRN OK…NRN/CNTRL TX

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241813Z – 241945Z

TSTMS WILL BUILD SWD FROM CNTRL/SWRN OK INTO WRN N TX AND POSSIBLY
THE TX BIG COUNTRY/CONCHO VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY
THREAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS…A COUPLE TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. WEATHER WATCH PROBABILITY ISSUANCE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
80 PERCENT.

18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW TO THE SW KSPS WITH A WARM FRONT
BOWING ENE INTO SCNTRL/SERN OK AND A COLD FRONT SWWD INTO THE NRN
EDWARDS PLATEAU. BACKBUILDING CNTRL OK STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
CLOSER TO THE WARM SECTOR/FRONT NEAR KLAW RECENTLY…LIKELY OWING TO
HEATING AND APPROACH OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING OVER
SCNTRL AND CNTRL OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER REGION OF STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AMID THE
DEEPENING CU FIELD NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES OVER THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY S OF KABI TO KSJT.
HERE…AIR MASS HAS BEEN RECOVERING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S.

PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS…STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG
WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HIGHER THREATS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS N TX AND CNTRL/SRN
OK AS STORMS BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EWD ALONG THE RED RIVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER S…STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AS THEY
MOVE OFF THE INITIATING BOUNDARY AND MOVE SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE HILL
COUNTRY.

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