Storms are on the increase in central & eastern Oklahoma. The trends will tend to built this back toward I-35 & the US-81 corridors over the northern two-thirds of Oklahoma including Ponca City, Enid, El Reno, Guthrie, Stillwater, Oklahoma City, Norman, Shawnee, Tulsa, Okmulgee, Bartlesville, Miami, Broken Arrow & Muskogee. Here is the latest discussion by the Storm Prediction Center. At the time of this post, some storms already were dropping golf ball to ping pong ball sized hail.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0544
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0908 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 240208Z – 240345Z
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL
AND ERN OK…AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR HAIL.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN ECHOES OVER E CNTRL OK IN A
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.
PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION…AND
SEVERAL MODELS AGREE ON AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA.
THUS…A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.