Moderate Risk for Severe Weather in Parts of Oklahoma, Missouri & Arkansas


A moderate risk of severe weather has now showed up for parts of eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri & western Oklahoma. This includes Tulsa & Muskogee in Oklahoma, Joplin, Springfield & Branson in Missouri, and Fayetteville, Bentonville, Rogers & Fort Smith in Arkansas. Here is a graphic for that severe risk.

Be on the lookout for damaging winds, huge hail over 3 inches in diameter and tornadoes in the moderate risk area. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is seeing on this event.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2011

VALID 221630Z – 231200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK…NORTHWEST AR…AND SOUTHERN MO…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID MS
AND MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY…

A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THIS OCCURS…STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM OK INTO SOUTHERN MO.

…MO/IL INTO OH VALLEY…
A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING THIS MORNING NEAR THE
STL AREA. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION
NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET…AND IN REGION OF MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RETREATING SURFACE WARM
FRONT OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL LIKELY HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

…MO/AR/OK/TX…
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OK…AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT…SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY. CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAPPING
INVERSION AND HELP THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT…AND POTENTIALLY MORE DISCRETELY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. TORNADOES APPEAR OF
GREATEST CONCERN OVER SOUTHERN MO…FAR NORTHERN AR…AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHERN IL WHERE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE RETREATING
WARM FRONT WILL BE PRESENT. STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS THE MID MS AND INTO THE OH
VALLEY.

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