Friday Could Be Round 2 of Severe Weather in Oklahoma City


Storm chances will continue on Friday for Oklahoma City. All the models that show this on Thursday, they are saying the same thing on Friday. Dryline sets up somewhere in western Oklahoma within 20-40 miles of its position on Friday. Two bonafide severe weather chances. I don’t think Oklahoma City will escape the storms both days. It looks good to get something out of this in Oklahoma City. This Good Friday may not look like a Good Friday in terms of severe weather for Oklahoma and rolling northeast to Illinois. Here is the graphic showing this. I have included the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center as well.

Day 3 Convective Outlook Map

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 20 2011

VALID 221200Z – 231200Z

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS…

…SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS…

AT LEAST MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ATTENDANT POLAR JET
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. A CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKELY TO ADVANCE/POTENTIALLY DEEPEN NORTHEASTWARD
FROM KS EARLY FRIDAY TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT…WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/FAR WESTERN OK.

INITIALLY…AT THE TERMINUS OF A STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL
JET…ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS TOWARD THE LOWER OH
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE EXACT IMPACTS OF THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION
ARE UNCERTAIN…AS THIS ACTIVITY COULD EFFECTIVELY IMPEDE THE DEGREE
OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT…AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO RETURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SURFACE LOW AND
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT.

AS THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON…CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING…ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MO/PERHAPS WESTERN IL ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT…SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO OK NEAR/EAST OF AN EXPECTED SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS WESTERN OK. GIVEN MODERATELY
STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ALOFT /40-55 KT AROUND 500 MB/ COLOCATED
WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE/ADJACENT MOIST AXIS…INITIAL MODAL SUPERCELLS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY EVOLVING LINEAR CLUSTERS /DURING THE EVENING/ WILL
POSE AN INITIAL LARGE HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS TX…OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS /HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREAT/ MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

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