Rain Chances Go Up for Oklahoma City; Will Severe Weather Be in Oklahoma City’s Future (4/19/2011)


The weather models continue to give Oklahoma City a 50/50 shot of rain starting Thursday afternoon & continuing off and on during the Easter weekend. Thursday is looking a little better for Oklahoma City to get severe weather, with the dryline being positioned close to an Alva to Elk City to Hollis line. If the moisture axis can get going with no cap limitations, supercells are possible with a severe weather outbreak likely for Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas starting Thursday afternoon and going east overnight Thursday. Tornadoes, large hail & damaging winds can not be ruled out.

Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is saying in regards to this potential outbreak. I will post updated information as it comes in.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2011

VALID 211200Z – 221200Z

…SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY…
WHILE DETAILS ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION MODESTLY VARY…00Z
GFS/ECMWF/NAM GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS…SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY…WITH
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF A SHARPENING SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
DRYLINE.

A RELATIVELY STRONG CAP COUPLED WITH ANTICIPATED MODEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED DRYLINE PROVIDES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF SURFACE BASED TSTMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FURTHERMORE…NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY ALSO EXISTS AT THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE REGARDING THE DRYLINE
POSITION AND SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE NORTHWARD RETURNING MOIST
SECTOR…WITH 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE CONSIDERABLY MORE NORTHWARD
AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z NAM. REGARDLESS…CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL TX/WESTERN PART OF NORTH TX INTO WESTERN OK THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PROVIDED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT…VEERING WIND PROFILES AIDED BY 35-45 KT MID
TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WOULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UNCERTAINTIES/NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITIES PRECLUDE A SLIGHT
RISK AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT…AS SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION AND A LOW
LEVEL JET NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFIES…THE MOST LIKELY/HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO IS FOR TSTMS TO INCREASE AFTER DARK WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT…AND
THIS SCENARIO COULD WARRANT A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.

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