Severe Weather Still a Threat Today


Severe weather is still on tap for today as our storm system moves eastward. The best chances for the rough stuff looks like to be along the east coast from the Del/Mar/VA south to the Georgia/Florida border. Below is the best guess for severe weather today according to the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

VALID 161300Z – 171200Z

…THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
AND SRN VA…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA…FROM GA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES…

…SYNOPSIS…
IL UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEADILY EWD TODAY…EVOLVING INTO A
POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH…THE AXIS OF WHICH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM CNTRL OH TO WRN NC BY THIS EVE. THE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND OFF
THE NJ CST BY 12Z SUN AS A NEW UPR LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
UPR GRT LKS.

AT THE SFC…DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL DRIFT N ACROSS THE UPR GRT LKS.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT…NOW CRESTING THE SRN
APPALACHIANS…SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND ACCELERATE ENE
ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
ADVANCES NE INTO CNTRL/SE VA. A WEAK AREA OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR OVER NW NC/SW VA…IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK ROTATING
THROUGH BASE OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH.

…SE GA/CAROLINAS TO MID ATLANTIC…
SCTD TSTMS NOW PRESENT FROM UPSTATE SC TO S GA/THE FL PANHANDLE ARE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY’S SUPERCELLS IN MS/AL. THE LONGEVITY OF THESE
UPDRAFTS…THEIR MOVEMENT INTO ZONE OF LOW-LVL MOISTENING/WAA OVER
THE SAVANNAH RVR VLY/UPSTATE SC…AND ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING…SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REJUVENATE INTO
STRONGER STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. GIVEN CHARACTER AND STRENGTH OF
WIND PROFILES…THESE COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT
FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

IN THE MEAN TIME…SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 60S F AND PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/ WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY N ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND SRN VA TODAY WITH 50+ KT SLY LLJ. THIS …COUPLED
WITH WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING…SHOULD YIELD
SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT FROM ERN GA/UPSTATE SC INTO S CNTRL VA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT FROM
NEAR KCHS NWD INTO ERN NC.

DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT UPR FLOW IN EXIT REGION JET STREAK ROUNDING BASE OF UPR
TROUGH. LONG…HOOKED HODOGRAPHS AND MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS/BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS/LEWPS WITH TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS…IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL REMAIN MORE LIMITED WITH NWD EXTENT
INTO WV AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. NEVERTHELESS…THIS AREA WILL
BE SUBJECT TO STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT/DEEP WIND FIELD THAN
POINTS FARTHER S…SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS
ISOLD TORNADOES AS FAR N AS WV/MD/SRN PA BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES/SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.

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