Latest SPC Discussion for the Mid-Atlantic


The severe weather will not be confined to the southeast today. The mid-Atlantic could see some weather issues today. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is saying on this.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0453
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WV INTO SWRN PA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161443Z – 161545Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 1430Z…RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BOWING LINE SEGMENT FROM
JUST E OF PKB TO 30 E OF CRW MOVING FROM 235/45-50 KT. 12Z OBSERVED
AND CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION
IS STILL ELEVATED /BASED IN THE 800-700 MB LAYER/ ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST THAT
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALLOW FOR LOCALLY STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING TO OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH A RESULTANT STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN
THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED BY REGIONAL VWP DATA /I.E. 50-70
KT SLY FLOW AT 1 KM AGL/…THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A CORRIDOR
OF WIND DAMAGE SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.

..M

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