Day 2 of Severe Weather Outbreak on Friday


We are looking at Day 2 of this severe weather outbreak tomorrow in most of the Southeast & Mississippi Valley. Same thing as today, with large hail, damaging winds & long-track, violent tornadoes likely. Here is what the Storm Prediction Center is saying on this

Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thursday Apr 14 2011

Valid 151200z – 161200z

..there is a MDT risk of severe thunderstorms over much of central and northern MS
and Alabama into portions of southern Tennessee…

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the lower MS
valley/Gulf Coast region northward into the middle MO/Ohio valleys…


A vertically stacked surface and upper level low will move from the
Central Plains eastward into the middle/lower MS valley during the day…with
a strongly cyclonic upper speed maximum nosing into northern MS/western Tennessee. Southerly
surface flow across the warm sector will help to transport low to middle
60s f dewpoints northward ahead of a dryline that will extend southward be near
the MS river around 21z. With strong wind profiles overspreading an
unstable air mass…areas of significant severe weather are likely
during the day.

..mid/lower MS River Valley eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and Alabama…
Numerous showers and storms should be ongoing Friday morning from
central Arkansas into southeastern MO in an area of strong warm advection associated
with a 50+ knots low level jet…and in a region of strong DCVA with
the upper jet nosing in. With 60s dewpoints in place…forecast
soundings indicate effective surface based parcels and large looping
hodographs favorable for rotating storms. Thus…it appears some of
this activity may be severe at the beginning of the period including
a threat of tornadoes.

This early activity may have an impact on southward development
initially…but given little convective inhibition across the warm
sector…and strong surface convergence near the dryline…more
storms should form by late morning or early afternoon over much of
northern and central MS. Here…a tight middle level thermal gradient will be
in place which may hamper storm coverage over southeastern la/southern MS and Alabama.
However…shear profiles would support supercells all the way to the
Gulf Coast with a hail/wind/tornado threat.

Potential destabilization farther north will be somewhat hampered by
early day convection…but strong cooling aloft and steepening low
level lapse rates should result in a secondary area of supercell and
tornado potential over southeastern MO into southern Illinois/western Kentucky by afternoon.
Forecast hodographs in this area depict sufficient low level
curvature for supercells…along with somewhat marginal hodograph
length due to weakening middle level flow closer to the upper low.
Regardless…a few tornadoes and large hail appear likely in this
region as well.

Activity will continue eastward after 00z/dark…with the greatest
nocturnal threat over Alabama in closer proximity to moisture and
instability…and where strongly curved hodographs will reside.

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