Severe Weather Possible in Oklahoma & Kansas Today

Today is just the start of the severe weather weekend. Oklahoma City will be close to the action. Any of the storms will go severe within 30 minutes of initialization & development. We could look at supercells as well. Here is the convective outlook for today/tonight for Oklahoma City. I will be monitoring all the latest!!

Day 1 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 am CDT Friday Apr 08 2011

Valid 081630z – 091200z

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from OK/Kansas into portions of the
middle MS and Ohio valleys…as well as the central Appalachians to the
western Carolinas…

A strong upper trough is forecast to dig across California today…while
weak upper ridging takes place over most areas east of The Rockies.
Despite the ridging aloft…rather strong westerly middle level flow
and increasing instability will result in a risk of severe
thunderstorms over several areas today.

At the surface a frontal boundary from northern NC extends nwwd across
Appalachians through western WV and then westward to north of Ohio River…then west-southwestward
across central MO to southwestern Kansas/OK border. This boundary separates the
large warm sector to the S which is undergoing destabilization from
both the presence of an eml and advection of Gulf moisture…and a
cooler air mass to the north.

..OH/Tennessee valleys to western Carolinas…
Rapid destabilization is taking place eastward across Kentucky/Tennessee to S of
frontal boundary with dewpoints rising into the middle 60s. Strong
heating is occurring this am over lower Ohio Valley and will lead to a
moderately unstable…weakly capped air mass by early this afternoon.
MLCAPES at or above 2000 j/kg coupled with brn shear of 50-60kt will
provide a favorable severe thunderstorm environment particularly for
large hail given the steep middle level lapse rates.

Storms should initiate vicinity/S of the frontal zone near Ohio River
by early/middle afternoon and then quickly evolve into line
segments/bows as well as possible supercells. Very large hail would
be possible associated with any supercell given the expected
environment along with isolated tornadoes. Have increased both
wind/hail probs with the potential for even a higher risk of wind if
storms evolve into line segments and bows. Additionally have spread
the slight risk into the western Carolinas as it now appears
sufficient instability will be present to maintain an organized
threat given the presence of 40-50 knots of shear.

..OK/Kansas into middle MS and Ohio valleys this evening…
Surface boundary extending from near the OK/Kansas border eastward
into MO/Illinois will likely be focus of severe thunderstorm development.
Operational and experimental model
solutions continue to support the development of isolated
thunderstorms by late this afternoon over northern OK and southeast
Kansas despite weak forcing aloft. Strong heating and increasing
moisture will help to reduce cap and aid in initiation. With
MLCAPES rising to 3000 j/kg supercell storms will be likely with
large hail and damaging winds possible. The activity is expected to
increase in coverage as it spreads eastward along the boundary into
the middle MS valley…and eventually into the Ohio Valley after
midnight. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat…although
large hail will remain possible. If supercell structures can be
sustained it will increase the potential for tornadoes and very
large hail. Expected coverage precludes the increasing lower risk
coverage probabilities at this time.

..Gulf Coast states…
Ample low level moisture has returned to the Gulf Coast region this
morning with middle/upper 60 dewpoints as far north as Tennessee.
Widespread low clouds are retarding the heating this morning.
However…cinh will decrease sufficiently this afternoon coupled
with trailing ascent from shortwave trough moving across Tennessee and may
result in a few strong to severe storms given the expected large
cape/marginal shear environment.

.Hales/stoppkotte.. 04/08/2011


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