Severe Thunderstorm Watch #11 in Effect for Areas Along and South of I40 Until 10 PM CDT (3-31-2015)

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK
357 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015 OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-039-043-045-049- 051-055-057-063-065-067-069-075-085-087-095-099-109-123-125-129- 133-137-141-149-010300- /O.NEW.KOUN.SV.A.0011.150331T2100Z-150401T0300Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 11 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN OKLAHOMA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES 35 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA: CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA: PONTOTOC SEMINOLE IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BLAINE DEWEY ELLIS

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA: ATOKA BRYAN COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON MARSHALL

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA: CARTER GARVIN JEFFERSON LOVE MURRAY STEPHENS

IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA: CADDO COMANCHE COTTON GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN

IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA: BECKHAM CUSTER ROGER MILLS WASHITA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ADA…ALTUS…ANADARKO…ARDMORE… ARNETT…ATOKA…CHEYENNE…CHICKASHA…CLINTON…COALGATE… CORDELL…DUNCAN…DURANT…EL RENO…ELK CITY…FREDERICK… HOBART…HOLDENVILLE…HOLLIS…LAWTON…MADILL…MANGUM… MARIETTA…MOORE…MUSTANG…NORMAN…OKLAHOMA CITY… PAULS VALLEY…PURCELL…SAYRE…SEMINOLE…SHAWNEE…SULPHUR… TALOGA…TISHOMINGO…WALTERS…WATONGA…WAURIKA… WEATHERFORD AND YUKON.

Moore Tornado Now Rated an EF2 (3-30-2015)

The rating on the Moore Tornado from Wednesday, March 25th, 2015 has been upgraded as pockets of EF2 damage was noted close to 2nd and Janeway. Also, near Main and Arnold in the same area. I observed similar damage when I visited the area on Thursday, March 26th.

The tornado lifted only 4 miles northeast of where I am at in Norman. Below, you will see a photo of the view from my residence in Norman. I observed 60 mph winds at my location around 6:45 PM CDT, most likely what is termed as rear flunk downdraft winds. I had also observed golf ball sized hail and 60 mph winds around 7:15 PM from this cell too near I35 and Robinson St in west Norman.

Here’s the information on tornado from NWS Norman. This information may change.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 3/25/2015 MOORE TORNADO EVENT

.OVERVIEW…
DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY… MOORE AND FAR NORTH NORMAN WAS CAUSED BY A COMBINATION OF THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND A NARROW TORNADO WITH AN INTERMITTENT DAMAGE PATH. THE PATH OF WIND DAMAGE
VARIED FROM 0.1 TO 0.6 MILES WIDE WITH EVIDENCE OF A NARROW TORNADO OBSERVED OCCASIONALLY WITHIN THIS AREA OF DAMAGE.

THE DAMAGE BEGAN NEAR SOUTHWEST 119TH STREET AND MAY AVENUE IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CITY… MOVED THROUGH MOORE… AND ENDED ABOUT ONE-HALF MILE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHEAST 36TH AVENUE AND INDIAN HILLS ROAD IN EXTREME NORTHERN NORMAN. THE MOST CONSISTENT EVIDENCE OF A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED FROM SOUTHWEST OF NORTHWEST 12TH STREET AND SANTA FE AVENUE TO NEAR SOUTHWEST 7TH STREET AND BROADWAY AVENUE IN MOORE.

LOW-END EF2 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED IN A SMALL AREA OF MOORE FROM NEAR NORTHWEST 2ND STREET AND ARNOLD STREET TO NEAR MAIN STREET AND JANEWAY AVENUE.

.MOORE TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2 /MINIMAL/
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 111-115 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 11 MILES… ALTHOUGH NOT CONTINUOUS
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 7

START DATE: MAR 25 2015
START TIME: 634 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 4.5 MILES WNW MOORE /CLEVELAND/ OK
START LAT/LON: 35.349/ -97.565

END DATE: MAR 25 2015
END TIME: 650 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 7 SE MOORE /CLEVELAND/ OK
END_LAT/LON: 35.283/ -97.384

NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.

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View from Lexington Crossing of storm producing Moore Tornado. Notice the cloud in the lower left hand corner is the wall cloud producing the tornado.

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Radar image around the time the tornado lifted near 36th Ave NE and Indian Hills Rd in Norman, OK

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From NWS Norman: Damage path of the Moore tornado and straight line wind event from March 25, 2015

Sand Springs Tornado Rated EF2 by NWS Tulsa (3-27-2015)

A EF2 tornado hits areas from Keystone Lake to just SW of Sand Springs, OK on the evening of Wednesday, March 25th. Here’s the write up from NWS Tulsa.

SAND SPRINGS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 125 TO 135 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 9 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 800 YARDS
FATALITIES: 1
INJURIES: 30
START DATE: MARCH 25 2015
START TIME: 525 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 6.3 W POGUE AIRPORT / OSAGE COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 36.1752 / -96.2670

END DATE: MARCH 25 2015
END TIME: 538 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 0.6 SW OF SAND SPRINGS / TULSA COUNTY / OK
END LAT/LON: 36.1332 / -96.1167

SURVEY SUMMARY: A TORNADO DEVELOPED OVER KEYSTONE LAKE IN OSAGE COUNTY AND MOVED EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS HIGHWAY 412 NEAR THE BRIDGE. IT DAMAGED RANCH HOUSES AND BARNS AS WELL AS A CHURCH ON 209TH WEST AVE. THE TORNADO MOVED SOUTHEAST DAMAGING SEVERAL HOMES ON 193RD WEST AVE AND CROSSED HIGHWAY 412 WHERE IT BLEW OVER A SEMI TRACTOR TRAILER. LARGE UTILITY POLES WERE SNAPPED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 AND A DOUGHNUT BUSINESS WAS DESTROYED AT 177TH WEST AVE.

THE TORNADO CONTINUED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER THEN MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS RIVER OAKS ESTATES MOBILE HOME PARK WHERE NUMEROUS HOMES WERE DESTROYED…RESULTING IN ONE FATALITY AND 30 INJURIES. THE TORNADO CROSSED THE RIVER AGAIN AS IT HEADED TOWARD SAND SPRINGS WHERE IT DISSIPATED JUST BEFORE HIGHWAY 97.

NUMEROUS TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG THE PATH AND MANY POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED. THE SURVEY TEAM ALSO ASSESSED EXTENSIVE WIND DAMAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST ON CHARLES PAGE BLVD. A BROAD AREA OF WIND DAMAGE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH CAUSED SHINGLE DAMAGE AND MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO MANY HOMES…UPROOTED NUMEROUS TREES…AND DAMAGED BUSINESSES. THE NORTH FACING WALL OF A GYMNASTICS FACILITY HAD THE NORTH FACING WALL COLLAPSE INWARD…RESULTING IN THE ROOF COLLAPSING IN THAT PORTION OF THE BUILDING. SEVENTY FIVE CHILDREN WERE IN THE FACILITY AT THE TIME AND WERE TAKEN TO UNDERGROUND SHELTER BEFORE THE WIND STRUCK THE BUILDING. ESTIMATED WIND IN THIS AREA WAS AROUND 100 MPH.

Below is a series of radar images from NWS Tulsa showing the tornado on radar.
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Record Rainfall Hits Oklahoma City (6-23-2014)

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014 .

..RECORD RAINFALL BROKEN AT OKLAHOMA CITY…

THE RECORD RAINFALL FOR THIS DATE WAS 2.79 INCHES… WHICH OCCURRED BACK IN 1908. SO FAR TODAY AT WILL ROGERS WORLD AIRPORT IN OKLAHOMA CITY… A TOTAL OF 3.03 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN… WHICH HAS BROKEN THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL RECORD. IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING RAIN OCCURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT CST… AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.

Your Oklahoma City 7-Day Forecast: May 6-13, 2014

Tonight-Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of thunderstorms 10 percent.

Wednesday-Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Windy. Highs in the upper 80s. Chance of thunderstorms 20 percent.

Wednesday Night-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of thunderstorms 40 percent.

Thursday-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of thunderstorms 50 percent.

Thursday Night-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the evening. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of thunderstorms 40 percent.

Friday-Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.

Friday Night-Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s.

Saturday-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Saturday Night-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Sunday-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Sunday Night-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of thunderstorms 40 percent.

Monday-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Monday Night-Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s. Chance of thunderstorms 30 percent.

Tuesday-Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s. Chance of thunderstorms 40 percent.

Louisville, MS Tornado Rated a EF4 (4-30-2014)

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(From Twitter user @wxdam, a debris ball signature is on radar as the EF4 tornado hits Louisville, MS.)

On the afternoon of Monday, April 28rh a EF 4 Tornado struck Louisville and Renfroe, MS in Leake, Neshoba, Attala and Winston County. This tornado produced a large area of EF-2 to EF-4 damage along its path. Hundreds of structures were heavily damaged and thousands of trees were snapped and uprooted. A door from a building in the community of Louisville landed on the campus of Mississippi State University in Starkville.

The EF-4 damage consisted of several homes and apartments that were literally reduced to slabs, industrial buildings that collapsed, chicken houses that were completely destroyed with little trace left of them. Debarked and denuded trees and a collapsed cell tower were also noted.

Below is information from NWS Jackson, MS on the strength of the tornado

Rating: EF-4
Estimated Maximum Wind:  185 mph
Fatalities/Injuries: 9 fatalities and unknown Injuries
Damage Path Length:  35.5 miles
Maximum Path Width: 3/4 mile
Approximate Start Point/Time: 2 miles NNE Renfroe
3:51 pm
Approximate End Point/Time: 5 miles NNE Louisville
4:47 pm

Mayflower/Vilonia Tornado Rated a High End EF4 (4-30-2014)

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(Image courtesy of NWS Little Rock. This image shows the base velocity couplet near Saltillo, AR moments before the tornado hit Vilonia)

The Mayflower-Vilonia, Arkansas tornado that struck on the evening of Sunday, April 27, has been given a final rating of a high-end EF-4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.

Officials with the National Weather Service made the announcement Wednesday evening at a news conference at their office in North Little Rock, AR.

According to officials, this tornado started West of Ferndale and ended in El Paso.  It was on the ground for 41.3 miles and lasted more than an hour. This tornado reached its maximum strength near Downtown Vilonia.

NWS survey teams revisited a few damage spots in Mayflower and Vilonia earlier today before deciding and making the final determination.

This tornado is also being blamed for the first death ever from someone taking shelter in a safe room designed to withstand tornadic winds.

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(Photo is of the debris ball on radar NE of Roland, AR. Courtesy of @okcstormwatcher on Twitter. )

Here’s a write up that the Weather Channel did.

Tornado ‘Shredded’ Cars, Trucks and 18-Wheelers

The Arkansas twister shredded cars, trucks and 18-wheelers stuck along Interstate 40 north of Little Rock. After the storm passed, tractor-trailer rigs tried to navigate through the damage to continue their journeys, while gawkers held smartphones to their windows to offer a grim glimpse of the destruction.

State troopers went vehicle-to-vehicle to check on motorists and found — with genuine surprise — that no one was killed.

“About 30 vehicles — large trucks, sedans, pickup trucks — were going through there when the funnel cloud passed over,” said Bill Sadler, a spokesman for the Arkansas State Police.

The Red Cross has opened emergency shelters at St. Joseph’s Catholic Church in Conway and Beryl Baptist Church in Vilonia.

Four other Red Cross-supported shelters are also open. In Conway, they are located at Antioch Baptist Church, Oak Bowery Baptist Church and Point of Grace. A shelter is also available at Mayflower Middle School.

The shelters are providing cots, blankets and food for the displaced residents.”

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(Photo is of the debris ball northeast of Vilonia, AR, after the tornado had reached its maximum strength. Courtesy of @okcstormwatcher on Twitter.)

Quapaw, OK/Baxter Springs, KS Tornado Rated EF-2 (4-28-2014)

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(Map above courtesy of NWS Tulsa, showing damage path from Quapaw, OK/Baxter Springs, KS Tornado)

Here’s the damage survey from this deadly tornado that hit Quapaw, OK and Baxter Springs, KS on Sunday, April 27th,2014. Information is subject to change.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 840 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/27/14
TORNADO EVENT… .QUAPAW TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2 ESTIMATED
PEAK WIND: 115 TO 125 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 7 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 325 YARDS

FATALITIES: 1 INJURIES: 12 (IN QUAPAW)
START DATE: APRIL 27 2014 START TIME: 529 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 3.4 SW QUAPAW / OTTAWA COUNTY / OK
START LAT/LON: 36.9120 / -94.8215 END DATE: APRIL 27 2014
END TIME: 536 PM CDT END LOCATION: 3.7 NE QUAPAW / OTTAWA COUNTY / OK END LAT/LON: 36.9987 / -94.7515

SURVEY SUMMARY: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED TORNADO DAMAGE IN AND AROUND QUAPAW, OKLAHOMA, TODAY. THE TORNADO APPARENTLY BEGAN OVER OPEN COUNTRY SOUTHWEST OF A RANCH HOME 3.4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF QUAPAW. THE FIRST DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO WAS THAT RANCH HOME…WHICH LOST NUMEROUS SHINGLES…A NEARBY BARN WAS DAMAGED…A MOBILE HOME HAD SIDING REMOVED…AND LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED IN THIS AREA. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST AND SNAPPED SEVERAL POWER POLES AND HARDWOOD TREES. BASED ON PHOTOGRAPHS…THE TORNADO HAD VERY LITTLE CONDENSATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT UNTIL IT NEARED HIGHWAY 69A JUST OUTSIDE OF QUAPAW…WHERE IT SNAPPED TREES AND DESTROYED A BARN. THE TORNADO THEN MOVED INTO THE TOWN…WHERE IT SEVERELY DAMAGED SEVERAL METAL BUILDING STRUCTURES…INCLUDING THE FIRE STATION. NUMEROUS HOMES WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED…SEVERAL OF WHICH HAD THEIR ROOFS BLOWN OFF. SEVERAL BUILDINGS IN TOWN WERE DESTROYED.

TWO PEOPLE WERE IN A VEHICLE THAT THEY PARKED RIGHT UP AGAINST ONE OF THOSE BUILDINGS…IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHELTER THEMSELVES FROM THE APPROACHING TORNADO. THE BRICK AND CONCRETE WALLS OF THE BUILDING COLLAPSED ON TOP OF THE VEHICLE…CRUSHING IT AND KILLING A 68 YEAR OLD MALE AND INJURING A FEMALE. SEVERAL OTHER VEHICLES IN THIS AREA WERE DAMAGED FROM FLYING DEBRIS. ABOUT A DOZEN INJURIES OCCURRED IN TOWN…SEVEN OF WHICH WERE SERIOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT BEING TRANSPORTED TO MEDICAL FACILITIES. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES WERE SNAPPED. THE TORNADO CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM QUAPAW…SNAPPING NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER POLES…AND DAMAGING HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS. THE ENDING POINT NOTED ABOVE IS WHERE IT CROSSED INTO KANSAS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SPRINGFIELD SURVEYED THE DAMAGE FOR THE KANSAS SEGMENT OF THIS TORNADO AND CONCLUDED THAT THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ANOTHER 4.25 MILES. THE KANSAS SEGMENT OF THIS TORNADO WAS ALSO RATED EF-2 DUE TO DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN AND AROUND BAXTER SPRINGS.

…NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 4/27/2014 BAXTER SPRINGS TORNADO…

…UPDATE TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL SURVEY INFORMATION. PLEASE NOTE…
THIS STATEMENT ONLY INCLUDES INFORMATION ON THE KANSAS PORTION
OF THIS TORNADO TRACK…

A TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI CONDUCTED A STORM SURVEY IN BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS ON APRIL 28 2014…TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF A TORNADO THAT STRUCK THE TOWN DURING THE EVENING OF APRIL 27.

AFTER PRODUCING DAMAGE IN THE TOWN OF QUAPAW OKLAHOMA…THE TORNADO CROSSED THE STATE LINE INTO KANSAS AND MOVED INTO THE TOWN OF Baxter SPRINGS…PRODUCING A 150 YARD WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOWN. NUMEROUS HOMES AND BUSINESSES WERE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED IN BAXTER SPRINGS…AND 25 INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

SEVERAL AREAS OF EF2 DAMAGE Were NOTED…WITH AREAS OF EF0 AND EF1 DAMAGE SURROUNDING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE SWATH. WIND SPEEDS WERE ESTIMATED TO Be BETWEEN 120 AND 130 MPH.

THE TORNADO LIFTED NEAR THE SPRING RIVER…JUST NORTHEAST OF TOWN.

.BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS TORNADO…

RATING: EF-2
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 130 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 4.25 MILES IN
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 150 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0 IN KANSAS
INJURIES: 25 IN BAXTER SPRINGS

START DATE: 04/27/2014
START TIME: 5:35 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS
START LAT/LON: 37.0016/-94.7485

END DATE: 4/27/2014
END TIME: 5:42 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 2.5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BAXTER SPRINGS KANSAS
END_LAT/LON: 37.0519/-94.7164

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES. EF0…WEAK……65 TO 85 MPH
EF1…WEAK……86 TO 110 MPH
EF2…STRONG….111 TO 135 MPH
EF3…STRONG….136 TO 165 MPH
EF4…VIOLENT…166 TO 200 MPH
EF5…VIOLENT…>200 MPH

NOTE: THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.

Oklahoma City Severe Weather Threat Through Sunday (4-22-2014)

A multi-day severe weather outbreak is possible. Wednesday will be day one of this outbreak for Oklahoma. The tornado threat is next to zero, however along and west of I35 will have the best chance for severe weather on Wednesday. Large hail to golf ball sized and winds to 70 mph will be possible.

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Then we will skip a couple of days and go to this upcoming weekend. Above you see a graphic that shows the severe weather threat this weekend. The purple shows where the best severe weather threat is for Saturday. Sunday’s threat will include part of where Saturday’s threat exists in the purple plus the green shading as well. OKC will be impact both days. A major threat for strong tornadoes will exist too,

Here’s the days 4-8 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. Note the strong wording this. This could be the biggest outbreak of 2014.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014 VALID 251200Z – 301200Z

DISCUSSION: SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

22/00Z ECMWF IS EXHIBITING REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE GFS NOW TRENDING TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. EARLIER CONCERNS REGARDING A POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE SRN PLAINS ARE LESSENING. WHILE UPPER BLOCK OVER CNTRL CANADA WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE A DOMINANT SFC ANTICYCLONE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS…IT APPEARS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE MUCH SOUTH OF I-70 OVER KS/MO THIS WEEKEND. STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX AT 27/00Z.

THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO ADVANCE POLEWARD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE PW VALUES SHOULD EASILY APPROACH 1.25 INCHES AS SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR. LATEST THINKING IS MODERATE-EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM WCNTRL TX…NWD INTO SCNTRL KS SATURDAY WHERE MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 4000 J/KG. IF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES AS LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEN POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE FROM SWRN TX…NWD INTO WRN KS SATURDAY THEN REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY FROM SERN KS…SWD INTO CNTRL TX AS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY7 PERIOD BUT SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION DURING THE DAY5-6 TIME FRAME COULD POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT…THUS CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH.

Think about what your plans will be in the aforementioned areas this weekend. Weather will change very quickly. Now is the time you want to go over your severe weather plan.

Follow me at @okcstormwatcher on Twitter, my storm chase team on Twitter at @XtremeStormOKC, also my Facebook page at http://www.facebook.com/OKCStormWatcher as well for latest updates.